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Denver Real Estate Forecast & Market Report – March 2021

denver real estate forecast

Median Sales Prices top $500,000 for Single Family Homes in The Denver Area

For the first time ever, the median sales price for homes in the Denver area topped half a million dollars. Sellers are seeing bidding wars with offers exceeding the asking price by tens of thousands of dollars. The winning buyers are often offering appraisal gaps, escalation clauses or foregoing inspection objections. Keep reading to learn more about what is driving this crazy market and when we can expect to see it change.

The best way to read this post: The majority of this post is comprised of me analyzing different metrics to break down what is happening with price, supply and demand across different segments of the Metro Denver real estate market. This helps me determine where the real estate market has been, where it is now and forecast where it is likely to be in the near future. If you are a stats nerd like me, you might enjoy reading the entire post, if not - skip to the summary at the end of each section, or all the way down to the overall Denver real estate market review and Denver real estate forecast at the end of the post. If you are reading this post on a cell phone, turn your device sideways to see the graphs in their entirety.

Metro Denver Real Estate Statistics Snapshot - All Property Types

 Latest Month
February 2021
Previous Month
January 2021
Year Over Year
February 2020
Median Sold Price$463,000$447,750$419,700
# of Active Listings2,9273,2887,008
# Under Contract6,2075,8536,569
# Sold Homes4,7383,9634,717
Months Supply of Homes0.40.51.1
Median Days on Market5714

Metro Denver Real EState Prices

Median Closed Price For The Entire Denver MLS - All Property Subtypes

The median sold price of homes closed (single family detached and attached) rose to a $463,000. Market prices for the market as a whole are up 10.3% year over year from February 2020.

Median Closed Price - Single Family Homes

The median sold price of single family detached home (houses) rose to a record high of $512,000. Market prices for single family homes are up 13.8% year over year from February 2020.

Median Closed Price - Attached (townhomes and Condo)

The median sold price for condos and townhomes in Denver rose from December to $342,500. Prices are up 8.7% year over year from February 2020.

Pricing Summary

Overall, prices rose 3.6% from last month. Single family house prices made the biggest jump with an increase of 5.6%. Price increasing are typical this time of year, however not at this rate.

Metro Denver Real Estate Supply

New Listings - Metro Denver, All Subtypes

3,839 new single family homes were listed in January which is about 600 homes or 15% less than we have seen in February over the past 2 years.

Homes For Sale - Metro Denver, All Subtypes

The supply or inventory of homes for sale is the Denver metro area is at an all time low. Only 1,819 single family homes were available for sale as of February 28 2021 – 63% less than the same time last year.

Supply Summary

Record low inventory levels are creating fast sales at top dollar with multiple offers. The median days on market for single family homes during February was only 5 days! We currently have less than 2 weeks of inventory, which mean, if nobody listed a house in the next 2 weeks – we wouldn’t have any homes for sale.

Metro Denver Home Buyer Demand

Sold Homes - Metro Denver, All Subtypes

4,738 homes sold throughout the Denver real estate market in February 2021, which is similar to the numbers we typically see this time of year.

Pending Sales - Metro Denver, All Subtypes

The pending homes sales metric is the best indicator of our current market because it is our most recent metric and tells us how many homes went under contract during the month of February, while closed sales and closed price in February show the results of homes that went under contract months ago in January and late December.
We saw about the same number of homes go under contract as we typically see in February.

Demand Summary

The number of homes going under contract and selling are on par with what we typically see this time of year. The problem is, we have 60% less inventory for the same number of buyers.

Interest Rates

According to Bankrate.com’s Rate Trade Index, “Mortgage experts were divided over where rates will go in the coming week (March 4-10). In response to Bankrate’s weekly poll, 42 percent said rates will go up, 33 percent said they will remain the same and 25 percent think they will go down.”

Today’s Most Prevalent National Rates as reported by Bankrate.com.

  • 30 YEAR FIXED – up to 3.24% compared to 2.85% last month.
  • VA – up to 3.01% compared to 2.77% last month.
  • FHA – up to 3.01% from 2.71% last month.
  • 15 YEAR FIXED – up to 2.51% compared to 2.35% last month.
  • 5 YEAR ARMS – up to 2.98% from 2.97% last month.

Denver real estate Forecast and market review

Pricing – All segments of homes throughout the metro Denver area rose 3.6% overall. Single family house prices jumped up 5.6%. Prices are up 10.3% year over year from this time last year.

Supply – Record low inventory levels are creating fast sales at top dollar with multiple offers over list price and crazy terms such appraisal gap coverage and escalation clauses. The median days on market for single family homes during January was only 5 days!

Demand – The number of homes going under contract and selling are about where we typically see them this year. The question is, would more homes be selling if more homes where available? – probably.

What’s Next For The Denver Real Estate Market? – My Denver Real Estate Market Forecast: – Prices will continue to push up. As more homes go on the market in spring, prices might stabilize. However, if inventory remains low, home prices will continue to artificially increase which could cause a bubble and put some people in tough spot.

My Advice For Potential Sellers – Right now is the best time ever to sell you home. Will it get better as the spring season progresses? Maybe, but if more homes come on the market, prices will stabilize and offers of tens of thousands over listing/market price will go away.

My Advice For Buyers – If you want to buy in this market, you have to be aggressive and patient at the same time. You will be competing with multiple offers and will probably need to be willing to overpay in this market or wait and hope it stabilizes.

Is a Wave of Foreclosures on the Horizon? – Maybe, but it will not have much of an effect on our market if it does come. Unlike in 2008, most homeowners in the Denver area have equity in their homes today. When the moratorium for foreclosures is lifted, these homeowners can either modify their loans or sell their homes at a profit rather then letting them fall into foreclosure. The homes that do go into foreclosure will likely be bought at auction rather than falling to the banks for REO or bank owned sales. a

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About the Author

Nathan Hart, CRS, ABR, PSA, e-PRO
Nathan Hart, CRS, ABR, PSA, e-PRO

I have been a REALTOR in the Denver area for almost 25 years. Through continuing education and extensive real world experience, I have become an expert in the real estate field. Blog posts give me an opportunity to share my knowledge and insights.

If you know of anyone who is thinking about buying or selling a home, please share their name with me or my name with them.

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