Metro Denver Real Estate Inventory Is 62% Lower Than It Was This Time Last Year. Will This Translate Into An Even Crazier Spring Than Last Year?
Inventory is 62% lower than it was at this time last year and 77% lower than it was 2 years ago. The low inventory last year was the major reason that home prices went up a staggering 19% from January 2021 to June 2021. Will 2022 follow a similar pattern or return to normal? Read on to see what I think will happen with the real estate market this year.
NOTE: Statistics are taken from Greater Denver Metro Counties: Adams, Arapahoe, Boulder, Broomfield, Clear Creek, Denver, Douglas, Elbert, Gilpin, Jefferson, and Park
The best way to read this post: The majority of this post is comprised of me analyzing different metrics to break down what is happening with price, supply and demand across different segments of the Metro Denver real estate market. This helps me determine where the real estate market has been, where it is now and forecast where it is likely to be in the near future. If you are a stats nerd like me, you might enjoy reading the entire post, if not - skip to the summary at the end of each section, or all the way down to the overall Denver real estate market review and Denver real estate forecast at the end of the post. If you are reading this post on a cell phone, turn your device sideways to see the graphs in their entirety.
Metro Denver Real Estate Statistics Snapshot - All Property Types
| Latest Month December 2021 | Previous Month November 2021 | Year Over Year December 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median Sold Price | $545,000 | $543,650 | $458,000 |
| # of Active Listings | 1,769 | 3,279 | 4,654 |
| # Under Contract | 3,459 | 4,774 | 3,626 |
| # Sold Homes | 4,970 | 5,658 | 5,474 |
| Months Supply of Homes | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Median Days on Market | 6 | 5 | 7 |
Metro Denver Real EState Prices
Median Closed Price For The Entire metro Denver MLS - All Property Subtypes
The median sold price of homes in the Denver metro area rose slightly from last month to $545,000. Prices as a whole are down less than 1% from the peak in June and are up 19% year over year from December 2020.
Median Closed Price - Single Family Homes
The median sold price of single family detached homes (houses) stayed even in December and rose over 18% year over year.
Median Closed Price - Attached (townhomes and Condo)
The median sold price for condos and townhomes in Metro Denver reached also stayed even from November to December at $350,000. Prices for condo and townhomes rose nearly 15% year over year.
Pricing Summary
Prices stayed fairly even across all segments of the residential real estate market in the Denver metro area.
Metro Denver Real Estate Supply
New Listings - Metro Denver, All Subtypes
2,783 homes were listed in December. This is less homes than last December, but slightly higher than a typical December.
Homes For Sale - Metro Denver, All Subtypes
A new record low (again) in inventory at only 1,769 units available for sale. Our inventory is 62% lower than this time last year and 77% lower than December 2019.
Supply Summary
Supply is the lowest it has been since record keeping began. This is because our inventory has not recovered from the COVID fallout in the spring of 2020 coupled with higher demand. Builders cannot bridge the gap due to worker, material, and permit shortages.
Metro Denver Home Buyer Demand
Sold Homes - Metro Denver, All Subtypes
4,970 homes sold in December. This number is lower than the number of homes sold in December last year; however, about 10% higher than Decembers before COVID. January closing will decline further before sales begin the spring climb February through June.
Pending Sales - Metro Denver, All Subtypes
The pending homes sales metric is the best indicator of our current market because it is our most recent metric and tells us how many homes went under contract during the month of December, while closed sales and sold prices in December show the results of homes that went under contract months ago in November and late October.
During the month of December, 3,459 homes went under contract. This is about 15% higher than a normal December.
Demand Summary
Demand is about 13% higher than typical for this time year. Demand will start climbing now that the holidays are behind us.
Denver real estate Forecast and market review
Pricing – All segments of homes throughout the metro Denver area stayed even from November to December.
Supply – Our inventory it a new record low, it is 62% lower than this time last year and 77% lower than December 2019
Demand – Demand is dropping due to our cyclical market, but still 13% higher than typical for this time of year. Demand is higher than it appears, because more homes would have closed in December if we had more inventory.
What’s Next for the Denver Real Estate Market? – My Denver Real Estate Market Forecast: –
We have likely passed the low price point of the season and prices will rise from now through June or July. Next month will probably show little change or a slight drop from prices this month, but the homes that close in January went under contract during November or December. I think we will see more homes come on the market this year than ever before. I predict that a larger number of new listings coupled with rising interest rates, will keep the increase in home prices closer to 10% to 12% rather than the 19% increase we saw in 2021.
My Advice for Potential Sellers – If you are ready to sell now, prices are where they were during the spring peak and will start rising. You will still get a record high price for your home in a short amount of time while avoiding much competition.
My Advice for Buyers – Don’t wait if you are considering buying. Start now and you might find a better deal than if you wait for prices to rise and interest rates to go up.
