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Denver Real Estate Forecast & Market Report – July 2020

denver real estate forecast July 2020

Number of Homes under contract & median sales price both hit record highs in the denver real estate market

The real estate market was slowed in the spring due to COVID-19, but the summer market is being stretched out by buyers and sellers who entered the market late.  In this post, I break down the numbers, summarize the current market and give you my prediction on the Denver real estate forecast & market health.

The best way to read this post: The majority of this post is comprised of me analyzing different metrics to break down what is happening with price, supply and demand across different segments of the Metro Denver real estate market. This helps me determine where the real estate market has been, where it is now and forecast where it is likely to be in the near future. If you are a stats nerd like me, you might enjoy reading the entire post, if not - skip to the summary at the end of each section, or all the way down to the overall Denver real estate market review and Denver real estate forecast at the end of the post. If you are reading this post on a cell phone, turn your device sideways to see the graphs in their entirety.

Metro Denver Real Estate Statistics Snapshot

 Latest Month
June 2020
Previous Month
May 2020
Year Over Year
June 2019
Median Sold Price$435,000$429,205$419,900
# of Active Listings9,3469,94613,065
# Under Contract10,7079,3438,642
# Sold Homes7,4614,2697,165
Months Supply of Homes1.51.72.2
Average Days on Market272826

Metro Denver Real EState Prices

Median Closed Price For The Entire Denver MLS

The median sold price of homes closed (single family and attached) rose from May to June posting a new all time high of $435,000. Market prices are up 3.6% year over year from June 2019.

Median Closed Price By Square Feet - Single Family

Here, I divided the single family detached (houses) segment into four fairly equal sub segments based on the number of houses sold, by square feet. (Approximately the same number of homes with sq ft between 1,801 – 2,500, sold as the number of homes with 3,451 or more sq ft). I use the metric – price per square foot, so that the numbers are less skewed. All segments went up, the Denver market as a whole rose 3.2%. Larger houses over 3,451 sq ft and smaller houses under 1,800 both had the largest percentage drops last month, but both recovered in June increasing by 4.8% and 2.7% respectively.

Median Closed Price By Square Feet - Attached

For townhomes, condos and duplexes, I divided the segment into two fairly equal sub segments based on the number of homes sold, by square feet. I limited it two because only 1,812 attached homes sold throughout the Denver metro area in June. Larger attached homes were the big gainer, rising by 3.4% (per sq ft.).

Pricing Summary

In May 2020 we had a record number of homes go under contract so it is no surprise that prices went up for homes closed in June. Larger homes (attached and detached) had the biggest drops in May but came back in June with the highest percentage gains. Overall, the market went up 1.4% from last month and 3.6% year over year from last June.

Metro Denver Real Estate Supply

New Listings

With 9,306 new listings hitting the market in June, it brought the total of new listings for the year to 45,007 which is 170 more than the yearly average through June over the past 5 years. 

Homes For Sale - Metro Denver, All Subtypes

As of the end of June 2020, the metro Denver MLS reported 9,346 homes were for sale.  The Denver inventory typically rises from May to June, but went down this year due to the record number of homes that went under contract.  While the inventory is down substantially from the past 2 years, it is higher than number of homes for sale in June of 2015, 2016, and 2017.

Supply Summary

Supply normally goes up this time of year while demand starts to go down – as we all know, this year is not normal.  I can look back to 2010 statistics and until now, the number of homes for sale has not dropped from May to June at any time from 2010 to present. What does this mean?  If you have been considering selling your house this year – get it on the market asap.

Metro Denver Home Buyer Demand

Sold Homes - Metro Denver, All Subtypes

7,461 homes sold throughout the Denver real estate market in June 2020, which was over 3,000 more than closed in May.  This rise is no surprise as last month we broke the record on the number of homes that went under contract during any month, ever (spoiler – until this month).

Pending Sales - Metro Denver, All Subtypes

The pending homes sales metric is the best indicator of our current market because it is our most recent metric and tells us how many homes went under contract during the month of June, while closed sales and closed price in June show the results of homes that went under contract months ago in May and late April.
Buyers continue to be very active and June broke last months all time high with 10,707 homes going under contract in June 2020.

Demand Summary

Demand was up in June by nearly 24% year over year. We are still seeing multiple offers and bidding wars, especially in homes priced under $400,000.

Interest Rates

According to Bankrate.com’s Rate Trade Index, “In the week ahead (July 9-14), half of the experts predict that rates will stay the same, 7 percent of the experts predict a rise in rates and 43 percent predict that rates will drop (plus or minus 2 basis points).”

Today’s Most Prevalent National Rates as reported by Bankrate.com.

  • 30 YEAR FIXED – down to 3.17% compared to 3.49% last month.
  • VA – down to 3.07% compared to 3.79% last month.
  • FHA – down to 3.05% from 3.34% last month.
  • 15 YEAR FIXED – down to 2.74 compared to 3.13% last month.
  • 5 YEAR ARMS – up to 3.22 from 3.18% last month.

Denver real estate Forecast and market review

Pricing – All segments of homes throughout the metro Denver area rose in June, with larger homes seeing the biggest gain.

Supply – Despite the large number of new listings coming on the market, record number of homes going under contract is keeping our inventory low. This is the first time in at least the past 10 years that inventory has gone down from May to June.

Demand – Demand is stronger than ever, literally. June 2020 reported nearly 11,000 homes going under contract, breaking the previous all time record posted just last month.

What’s Next For The Denver Real Estate Market? – My Denver Real Estate Market Forecast: – With record breaking pending sales in June, I expect July to have a record number of closings and also expect prices to continue to rise at a moderate rate. I predict that we will have several more strong months and a longer than usual summer selling season stretching into late August or early September. Low inventory will continue to make it difficult for lower priced buyers. If you have been considering putting your house on the market – I suggest doing it sooner than later.

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About the Author

Nathan Hart, CRS, ABR, PSA, e-PRO
Nathan Hart, CRS, ABR, PSA, e-PRO

I have been a REALTOR in the Denver area for almost 25 years. Through continuing education and extensive real world experience, I have become an expert in the real estate field. Blog posts give me an opportunity to share my knowledge and insights.

If you or somebody you know is thinking about becoming a buyer or a seller, remember, I am never too busy for you or your referrals.

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