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Denver Real Estate Forecast & Market Report – May 2021

Metro Denver Real Estate Market - May 2021

From April 2020 to April 2021, Median Sold Prices Went up over 20% (about $90,000)

These monthly market updates almost write themselves right now – just copy everything from last month and add about $25,000 to the median sold price. Although more homes are coming on the market, supply cannot keep up with demand. We continue to see multiple offers within days of listing a home with insanely good terms for sellers.

NOTE: Statistics are taken from Greater Denver Metro Counties: Adams, Arapahoe, Boulder, Broomfield, Clear Creek, Denver, Douglas, Elbert, Gilpin, Jefferson, and Park

The best way to read this post: The majority of this post is comprised of me analyzing different metrics to break down what is happening with price, supply and demand across different segments of the Metro Denver real estate market. This helps me determine where the real estate market has been, where it is now and forecast where it is likely to be in the near future. If you are a stats nerd like me, you might enjoy reading the entire post, if not - skip to the summary at the end of each section, or all the way down to the overall Denver real estate market review and Denver real estate forecast at the end of the post. If you are reading this post on a cell phone, turn your device sideways to see the graphs in their entirety.

Metro Denver Real Estate Statistics Snapshot - All Property Types

Latest Month
April 2021
Previous Month
March 2021
Year Over Year
April 2020
Median Sold Price$530,000$500,000440,301
# of New Listings7,1186,0914,797
# of Active Listings2,9872,6129,531
# Under Contract6,2865,9733,272
# Sold Homes5,8495,5774,100
Months Supply of Homes0.50.52.0
Median Days on Market445

Metro Denver Real EState Prices

Median Closed Price For The Entire Denver metro MLS - All Property Subtypes

The median sold price of homes closed (single family detached and attached) rose to $530,000. Prices for the metro Denver real estate market as a whole are up 20.4% year over year from April 2020.

Median Closed Price - Single Family Homes

The median sold price of single family detached homes (houses) rose to a new record high of $590,000. Market prices for single family homes are up 23.2% year over year from April 2020.

Median Closed Price - Attached (townhomes and Condo)

The median sold price for condos and townhomes in Metro Denver rose to $380,000. Prices are up 17% year over year from April 2020.

Pricing Summary

Overall, prices rose 6% from last month. Townhomes and condos are starting to increase at a higher rate as first time home buyers are getting priced out of the detached housing market. April 2020 marked the start of our temporary market slide last year due to COVID-19 shut downs and uncertainty – this created an unnatural pricing decline for a short time making year over year disparity even greater.

Metro Denver Real Estate Supply

New Listings - Metro Denver, All Subtypes

7,118 homes were listed in April which is about the same as the average number of homes that have gone on the market in April over the past 5 years, not including last year which was lower than average due to COVID-19.

Homes For Sale - Metro Denver, All Subtypes

The supply or inventory of homes for sale in the Denver metro area remains incredibly low. Only 1,914 single family homes were available for sale as of April 30 2021 – 70% less than the same time last year.

Supply Summary

Record low inventory levels are creating fast sales at top dollar with multiple offers. The median days on market for single family homes during April was only 4 days! We currently have less than 2 weeks of inventory, which mean, if nobody listed a house in the next 2 weeks – we wouldn’t have any homes for sale. We typically reach the peak number of homes available for sale in September, so there is still reason for hope that our inventory levels will come back to a reasonable number in late summer or fall.

Metro Denver Home Buyer Demand

Sold Homes - Metro Denver, All Subtypes

5,849 homes sold throughout the metro Denver real estate market in April 2021, which is about 16% more than we typically see this time of year.

Pending Sales - Metro Denver, All Subtypes

The pending homes sales metric is the best indicator of our current market because it is our most recent metric and tells us how many homes went under contract during the month of April, while closed sales and sold prices in April show the results of homes that went under contract months ago in February and late January.
We saw about 8.6% more homes go under contract then we typically see in April.

Demand Summary

More homes sold in April and more homes went under contract in April compared to the average number in previous years. Considering our inventory is 70% less than we typically have, we can expect demand to remain high until more sellers bring their homes to market.

Interest Rates

According to Bankrate.com’s Rate Trade Index, “Mortgage experts mostly think rates will stay put in the week ahead (May 6-12). In response to Bankrate’s weekly poll, 67 percent said rates will remain the same, 22 percent said rates would fall and 11 percent said rates would rise.”

Today’s Most Prevalent National Rates as reported by Bankrate.com.

  • 30 YEAR FIXED – down to 3.06% compared to 3.27% last month.
  • VA – down to 2.68% compared to 2.81% last month.
  • FHA – down to 2.86% from 3.03% last month.
  • 15 YEAR FIXED – down to 2.34% from 2.51% last month.
  • 5 YEAR ARMS – up to 3.16% from 3.08% last month.

Denver real estate Forecast and market review

Pricing – Overall, all segments of homes throughout the metro Denver area rose 6% last month and 20.4% year over year. Single family house prices went up 4.2% from March to April. Attached single family homes (condos and townhomes) saw their biggest gain in years and went up 6.7% over the month.

Supply – With 70% less inventory than we had last year, we continue to see fast sales at top dollar with multiple offers over list price and crazy terms such appraisal gap coverage and escalation clauses. The median days on market for single family homes during April was only 4 days!

Demand – More homes went under contract and sold than this time last year. April and May are typically the 2 months with the highest buyer demand.

What’s Next For The Denver Real Estate Market? – My Denver Real Estate Market Forecast: – May and June are historically the 2 months with the highest number of new listings coming on the market. I think that we will see the listing market extended a few months and continue to see a high level of new listings through July or August. July and August might be when prices finally start to stabilize before a slight decrease starts in September or October.

My Advice For Potential Sellers – Right now is the best time ever to sell you home in the Denver area. Will it get better as the spring season progresses? Maybe, but April and May are historically the best months to list your home. If more homes come on the market, prices will correct then stabilize and offers of tens of thousands over listing/market price will go away.

My Advice For Buyers – If you want to buy in this market, you have to be aggressive and patient at the same time. You will be competing with multiple offers and will probably need to be willing to overpay in this market or wait and hope it stabilizes.

Is a Wave of Foreclosures on the Horizon? – Maybe, but it will not have much of an effect on our market if it does come. Unlike in 2008, most homeowners in the Denver area have equity in their homes today. When the moratorium for foreclosures is lifted, these homeowners can either modify their loans or sell their homes at a profit rather then letting them fall into foreclosure. The homes that do go into foreclosure will likely be bought at auction rather than falling to the banks for REO or bank owned sales.

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About the Author

Nathan Hart, CRS, ABR, PSA, RENE
Nathan Hart, CRS, ABR, PSA, RENE

I have been a REALTOR in the Denver area for 25 years. Through continuing education and extensive real-world experience, I have become an expert in the real estate field. Blog posts give me an opportunity to share my knowledge and insights.

If you know of anyone who is thinking about buying or selling a home, please share their name with me or my name with them.

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