Pending sales Decline but inventory remains at record lows
Pending sales are starting to decline but still still posted a 26% increase over last year. While new listings were up 9% over this time last year, total inventory remains 46% lower than it was last year. The market is starting to slow, but is still extremely hot compared to where it normally is in the fall.
The Denver MLS / REColorado Market Watch Statistics
The following statistics come from REcolorado and show data for the Greater Denver Metro Area (Adams, Arapahoe, Boulder, Broomfield, Clear Creek, Denver, Douglas, Elbert, Gilpin, Jefferson, and Park Counties).
Homes Closed +26%
In September more homes sold than any other September on record. Throughout the month, 6,303 homes closed, a year-over-year increase of 26% and a 4% decrease month over month.
The count of listings in Pending status was 6,341, which is 26% more than September 2019. Homes in Pending status were 10% less than last month indicating the market may start taking a breather as we head into fall.
Homes Closed Year-Over-Year Change
September 2019 — 5,021
September 2020 — 6,303
The average price of a home in the Denver metro area in September was $538,376, a year-over-year increase of 12%. As compared to last month, prices saw a marginal increase.
Home price increases were driven by single-family residences, which sold for an average price of $598,875, a 13% year-over-year increase. The average price of multi-family/ condos/townhomes was $385,367, up 8% year over year.
Average Closed Prices Year-Over-Year Change
September 2019 — $480,661
September 2020 — $538,376
New Listings +9%
Throughout September, 6,563 new listings of homes for sale hit the market, which is 9% higher than September of 2019. Compared to last month, the count of New Listings saw a seasonal decrease of 5%.
At the end of September, there were only 5,159 Active properties on the market, 46% fewer than last year at this time and 11% lower than last month.
Currently, there is 4 weeks of inventory, 5 weeks fewer than this time last year and unchanged from last month.
New Listings Year-Over-Year Change
September 2019 — 6,045
September 2020 — 6,563
Days in MLS -10 Days
Denver Metro homes spent an average of 23 days on the market in September, 10 days fewer than this time last year and unchanged from last month.
On average, single-family residences were on the market 26 days, while multi-family/condos/ townhomes were on the market 22 days.
The median number of days a home spent on the market in September was 6, down 10 days from last year.
Days on Market Year-Over-Year Change
September 2019 — 33
September 2020 — 23
Metro Denver Real Estate Market Snapshot - September 2020
Year To Date
Year-to-date measures indicate our strong buying and selling season has continued into September. The number of Listings Closed year to date is 3% higher than this time last year and the highest count we have on record. While New Listings remain tight, the year to date gap has shrunk to 4% less than this time in 2019. The average Closed Price is up 6% from last year due in part to high buyer demand, limited inventory, and low interest rates. Homes spent an average of 27 days in the MLS, 3 days less than the previous year.
According to Bankrate.com’s Rate Trade Index, “In the week ahead (Oct. 15-21), about half of the experts on Bankrate’s panel (53 percent) predict rates will hold steady, while 40 percent expect rates to fall and 7 percent think rates will rise.”
Today’s Most Prevalent National Rates as reported by Bankrate.com.
- 30 YEAR FIXED – 3.04%, down slightly from 3.06% last month.
- VA – up to 2.94% compared to 2.9% last month.
- FHA – up to 3.24% from 2.88% last month.
- 15 YEAR FIXED – up slightly to 2.57% compared to 2.56% last month.
- 5 YEAR ARMS – down to 3.08% from 3.33% last month.
Denver real estate Forecast
What’s Next For The Denver Real Estate Market? – My Denver Real Estate Market Forecast:
The Denver real estate market will continue to favor sellers because of the low inventory and high demand. Prices are starting to level out and I predict that this year could be the first time in decades that prices will not drop during our winter months but will probably only rise slightly or stay level through January. Low inventory will continue to make it difficult for lower priced buyers; however, if you are considering buying, November and December will provide a better opportunity than if you wait until February when prices and perhaps interest rates will start to rise again.